Progress has been
achieved and stability ensured in national economic development, crucial data including investment, consumption, and export have made
a turnaround, and the livelihood indicators continued to be stable, all were
higher than the previous market expectation.
According to statistics released by
National Bureau of Statistics in Aug., China’s economy is recovering. Since Sep.,
several foreign-funded institutes including Standard Chartered Bank, Barclays
Bank, Commerzbank, and Hang Seng Bank have released their reports which showed
that China’s overall economic indicators had all the way improved in Aug.,
polices aimed for stabilizing growth continued to be effective, and economic
growth momentum is improving, and thus they all have increased China’ economic
growth expectation.
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
released China’s economic data of Aug. on 13 Sep. According to which, progress has been achieved and stability ensured
in national economic development, crucial data
including investment, consumption, and export have made a turnaround, and the
livelihood indicators continued to be stable, all were higher than the previous
market expectation. “Stabilized”, “recovered” or “rebound” turned to be
necessary terms for the NBS in their expressions of various economic indicators.
Over 9.84 million
urban jobs were created during the period from Jan. to Aug., covered 95% of the
full year target; and the commodity prices also remained in a low level.
Although still on the way to increase, the real estate price grew slowly in the
major cities.
According to NBS, Consumer Price Index
(CPI) of Aug. went up 1.3% year-on-year (0.5 percentage point lower than that
of July), lower than the previous market expectation. China’s official PMI of Aug.
increased to 50.4, created a record high since October 2014.
Commerzbank: China’s PMI of Aug.
Exceeded Expectation, Increased Full Year GDP up to 6.7%
Commerzbank increased its forecast on China’s
economic growth rate of 2016 from the previous 6.3% to 6.7% after China
officially published that the PMI has created a record high since Oct. 2014.
According to Zhou Hao, economist of Commerzbank
Asia, although some domestic enterprises lagged in capacity and technology in
China were shut down due to the industrial restructuring, China’s manufacturing
activities are still booming from an overall perspective, which reflects the
improvement on China’s economic growth.
According to Zhou, the market rebounded due
to the picking up of real estate market; however, to the viewpoint that China
has been on its way to recover, he still remained a cautious attitude.
Although the expectation on China’s GDP was
increased, Zhou didn’t believe the upward momentum regain of China’s economic
growth. To his point of view, China still has to struggle to resume and keep
the stabilized and high-speed economic growth.
Positive
Fiscal Policy Come into Force, Hang Seng Bank, Barclays Bank, and UBS Increased
Economic Expectation
With China gradually releasing positive
macroeconomic data in Aug., analysis institutions also raised expectations on
China’s economic growth in H2. Barclays Capital will increase the GDP growth of
the third and fourth quarter after seasonal adjustment by 0.2 percentage point,
which respectively turned to be 6.3% and 6.1%.
Unlike the downturn in the previous months,
according to Chang Jian, economist of Barclays, the economic data of China
rebounded in Aug. and various indicators have all taken a turn for the better,
and thus the expectation on China’s economic growth of H2 was raised. At the
same time, Barclays increased expectation on China’s GDP growth of 2017 by 0.5
percentage point to 6.2%.
According to Barclays, China’s economic
growth greatly improved from the second quarter to the fourth quarter this
year. During the Aug., the value of industrial output and retail sale
continuously improved, growth of fixed capital investment stabilized, and the
credit growth increased significantly, all of which coincided with PMI that was
superior to that of the market expectation and import data.
Apart from Barclays, Moody’s also raised
their economic outlooks on China. According to the latter, the GDP growth of
China will increase by 6.6% in 2016 and 6.3% in 2017, while the previous
forecast were 6.3% and 6.1% respectively.
Driven by the modest recovery in the price
of bulk commodity, the improvement on the capital flow situation, and progress
made in the growth prospect, according to Moody’s, the prospect of emerging
market has already stabilized.
According to Yao Shaohua, senior economist
of Hang Seng Bank Hong Kong, although it is less likely that the economy would
continue to rebound, with the action of positive fiscal policy and the neutral
but slightly easy monetary policy, China’s economy will maintain the stable
growth. According to Yao’s forecast, China’s economic growth in the third
quarter would increase to 6.7%, while the full year GDP growth in 2016 would
remain its previous forecast of 6.7%.
According to statistics, China’s investment
emerged a sign of stabilized growth. In Aug., the fixed capital investment
increased by 8.2%, 4.3 percentage points higher than that of July; retail sales
went up 10.6% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage point higher than that of July; both
the export and import growths picked up, among which the import growth has
turned positive from the negative and the export growth sped up by 4.2
percentage points than that of July to 5.9%.
With the credit growth and fiscal and
quasi-fiscal support stronger than what were expected, according to Wang Tao,
chief economist of UBS China, the expectation on China’s GDP growth of 2016
would raise from 6.2% to 6.6%, and the GDP growth of 2017 would increase from
5.8% to 6.3%.
*The
article is edited and translated by CCM. The original one comes from Jiemian.com.
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